A restriction on smallholder maize would trade food security for a cash-crop bet Uganda has already lost once

Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja states that President Museveni has directed her to draft legislation that would prohibit farmers with less than four acres from growing maize, sugarcane, tobacco, and cotton. Instead, smallholders would be encouraged to focus on coffee, poultry, piggery, dairy, and fruit cultivation, which are considered high-value crops at the core of the Four-Acre Model. The aim of this policy is to maximize returns from limited land. However, there is a concern that such a restriction may reduce the cultivation of maize, which is a staple crop for many farming households, especially during times of drought, rising food prices, and increasing regional demand for grain. This is not merely a debate about agricultural intensification; it centers on the issue of prohibition.

Maize is already recognized as the main temporary crop in Uganda. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) 2019 Agricultural Survey; the last comprehensive survey detailing crop production to maize was the most cultivated temporary crop, grown by 69 percent of agricultural households. In that season, Uganda produced 2.8 million metric tonnes of maize, a decrease from 3.4 million tonnes in 2018. The regions leading in production included Buganda North with 710,000 tonnes, followed by Bunyoro at 561,000, and Buganda South at 266,000. Of the total harvested, 63.4 percent was sold raw while 27.4 percent was retained for household consumption. Over the past decade, households have increasingly shifted towards growing cassava, maize, and bananas while moving away from millet and beans. Maize is not a secondary crop; it is a core staple for many households and a primary source of income.

It is estimated that around 90 percent of Uganda’s maize is produced by smallholders, a figure often cited in agricultural research and value-chain reports, including those from Wageningen University and CIMMYT-related maize studies. However, this figure is not published by UBOS itself. While UBOS does report who grows maize, how much is produced, and its uses, it does not break down national production into smallholder versus estate contributions. Research literature that uses the 90 percent figure typically characterizes production as being led by households cultivating less than two hectares, growing maize primarily for food and income. Some reports mention millions of households growing maize, with varying cultivation rates depending on the survey and year. What remains consistent is the structure of production: commercial estates are in the minority, and small farms make up the majority.

A ban on maize cultivation for smallholders would not be a minor adjustment. The average Ugandan farm size is already around 1.2 to 1.5 hectares, with many households farming less than one hectare. Reports from Kilimo Trust and other value-chain work indicate that maize plots are commonly under two hectares. Therefore, a legal limit of four acres would encompass most of those who currently grow maize.

The Four-Acre Model allocates one acre for food crops, but enacting a law that prohibits maize cultivation on smaller plots contradicts this framework. While coffee, fruit, and livestock can provide cash income, they do not replace staple foods like posho (maize flour), which is essential for household meals, including school lunches and the feed necessary for poultry and pigs. Both UBOS’s figure of 27.4 percent of maize used for household consumption and research estimates suggesting even higher figures highlight that a significant portion of the harvested maize remains within the household food system.

Maize yields in Uganda are low, presenting an argument for increased investment rather than a ban on cultivation. National average maize yields hover around 2.2 tonnes per hectare; approximately 900 kilograms per acre while well-managed conditions can yield between 6 and 8 tonnes, and sometimes higher in controlled research settings. Subsistence plots typically yield between 700 and 1,000 kilograms per acre, whereas high-input plots can reach 1,800 to 2,200 kilograms. The drop in national production from 3.4 million tonnes to 2.8 million tonnes between 2018 and 2019 already highlighted how sensitive output is to weather and input availability.

The yield gap is well-documented, caused by factors such as the use of recycled and informal seeds, low fertilizer application compared to other African countries, reliance on rain-fed production, pests, and climate-related shocks. Flooding can lead to yield losses of nearly 18 percent, while drought can cause a decline of about 10 percent. Projections indicate further national declines of approximately 10 to 12 percent by 2030 if current seed varieties remain unchanged. In northern districts like Lamwo and Pader, extended dry spells in 2024 disrupted flowering and led to poor harvests, prompting local agricultural officials to advise farmers to diversify their crops, as cereals suffered significant losses. This situation calls for the adoption of drought-resistant seeds, improved water management, and assessment of flood risks, rather than a ban on maize cultivation for the farms that still produce the majority of it.

These facts do not indicate that growing maize is unfeasible on plots smaller than four acres; rather, they reveal that public policy has consistently under-invested in this staple crop. Combining improved seeds with better fertilizer application has been linked to substantial yield gains on existing small plots. Advanced hybrid varieties could potentially double yields under current climatic conditions according to modeling studies. Relying solely on a smaller number of large-scale farms to increase maize production assumes that such units will emerge, remain involved in maize production, and sell at competitive prices in domestic markets. This is more of a hope than a concrete plan.

The story of Uganda’s vanilla market serves as a warning, not a peripheral issue. The country has experienced the consequences of shifting smallholders towards high-value export crops, as was seen in Madagascar in the late 1990s.