Potential AI-Driven Job Losses in Uganda

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming economies around the world, and Uganda is no exception. As AI technologies advance, they promise innovation and efficiency but also raise concerns about significant job losses, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on routine tasks. With a young, dynamic workforce and a growing digital landscape, Uganda faces both risks and opportunities. Today, we explore the potential for AI-driven job displacement in Uganda, drawing on global and local research, and offers practical strategies for individuals, businesses, and policymakers to adapt to this transformative wave.

Globally, AI is projected to significantly disrupt labor markets. Studies estimate that 9% to 47% of jobs are at risk of automation, potentially displacing between 300 million and 800 million jobs by 2030. In Uganda, where agriculture, manufacturing, and services dominate the economy, the impact of AI is beginning to emerge, although its adoption remains in the early stages due to infrastructure and cost barriers. Administrative and customer service roles are particularly vulnerable, as AI-powered chatbots and automation tools streamline tasks such as data entry and customer inquiries. For example, Ugandan businesses are increasingly using AI chatbots to manage customer interactions, reducing the need for human agents. A 2023 report highlighted that routine tasks in these sectors are prime targets for automation, threatening jobs in call centers and offices.

In manufacturing and agriculture, AI-driven systems, such as robotic process automation and image recognition, are reducing the need for manual labor. For instance, the National Agricultural Research Organization’s AI-based Cassava Disease Detection System improves crop yields but decreases the reliance on human monitoring. Globally, manufacturing jobs face high automation risks, and Uganda’s growing industrial sector could see similar trends. Entry-level knowledge work, such as data analysis and content creation, is also at risk, with generative AI tools like ChatGPT automating tasks in Uganda’s fintech and service industries, particularly in fraud detection and marketing. A 2025 study noted that while entry-level workers in Uganda’s service sector currently perceive low displacement risks, this could change as AI becomes more accessible.

Precise estimates for Uganda are limited, but global projections provide context. Goldman Sachs’ 2023 report suggested that 300 million jobs worldwide could be lost or degraded, with two-thirds of jobs exposed to some level of automation. In Uganda, where 50% of the population is under 17 and unemployment is driven by skill mismatches, AI could worsen joblessness without proactive measures. The Economic Policy Research Centre warned in 2025 that AI’s efficiency in diagnostics and data processing could outpace human performance, even putting higher-wage roles at risk. Uganda’s unique challenges, including a digital divide where only around 27% of the population has internet access, high AI implementation costs, limited AI literacy, and fragmented regulations like the 2019 Data Protection and Privacy Act, complicate the landscape further.

Despite these risks, AI offers transformative potential for Uganda. The African Union estimates that AI could contribute $1.2 trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, boosting GDP by 5.6%. In Uganda, AI is already enhancing agriculture, healthcare, and education, creating new roles and improving productivity. Historical examples, such as the introduction of ATMs increasing the demand for bank tellers, suggest that technological advancements often shift rather than eliminate jobs. A 2022 meta-analysis found that AI-driven productivity gains correlate with net job creation, offering hope for Uganda if adaptation is prioritized. By leveraging its youthful population and growing digital initiatives, Uganda can turn the challenges posed by AI into opportunities.

To navigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), individuals, businesses, and policymakers in Uganda must take proactive measures tailored to the country’s specific context. For individuals, acquiring skills in AI and digital literacy is essential. Initiatives such as The Makerere University Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Data Science (Mak-CAID), along with online platforms like AI4K12 Uganda, provide accessible training. These skills will prepare workers for roles that complement AI, such as data science and system maintenance, which are in high demand globally. Younger, educated Ugandans are particularly well-positioned to seize these opportunities. Furthermore, emphasizing non-automatable skills such as creativity, critical thinking, and interpersonal communication will help ensure resilience against job displacement by AI. For example, teachers can utilize AI tools like DIKSHA to enhance their lessons while retaining their vital human roles. A 2025 study highlighted how AI can complement educational practices.

Entrepreneurship also offers a promising path, as AI reduces barriers to innovation. An example is Yo! Labs’ AI-powered fertilizer app, which increased crop yields by 20%, demonstrating how individuals can develop solutions that meet local needs and generate new income streams.

Businesses in Uganda can strategically adopt AI to balance efficiency with workforce stability. Implementing AI for tasks like fraud detection in fintech or optimizing supply chains can lead to cost reductions of 15-50%. However, retraining employees for AI-augmented roles is crucial to maintaining morale and competitiveness. Startups like BrailleNet, which uses AI to convert text to braille in real-time, showcase how businesses can create inclusive job opportunities while leveraging technology. Collaborating with universities and the government to train workers, as recommended by a 2023 Business Times report, can help address skill gaps. To overcome cost barriers, companies can utilize open-source AI tools and seek government subsidies, allowing small enterprises to compete and create jobs in AI implementation and maintenance.

Policymakers play a vital role in shaping Uganda’s AI future. Finalizing the recommendations from the National AI Taskforce for a comprehensive AI governance framework, in alignment with the African Union’s AI Policy, will ensure the ethical and equitable adoption of AI. Expanding digital infrastructure, such as through the ICT in Education program, is essential to increase internet access, which currently stands at only 27%. Reforming the education system to include AI literacy from the elementary level is crucial for preparing Uganda’s young population who make 54% of whom are under 17 for an AI-driven economy. Retraining programs, like an expanded Youth Livelihood Program that includes AI-focused modules, can support displaced workers, while unemployment benefits can provide relief during transitions, as suggested by the Urban Institute in 2024. Public awareness campaigns, as recommended by the 2023 Business Times, can build trust and promote AI adoption, reducing resistance among the population.

While AI has the potential to disrupt jobs in Uganda particularly in administrative, manufacturing, and entry-level roles, the country can harness AI’s $1.2 trillion potential for Africa through proactive measures. By investing in skill development, strategically implementing AI in businesses, and establishing robust policies, Uganda can mitigate job losses while promoting growth. The country’s youthful population, increasing literacy rates, and initiatives like the National AI Taskforce provide a solid foundation for this journey. As noted by the Economic Policy Research Centre in 2025, “AI shall not threaten employment if managed properly.” By balancing efficiency with investments in people, Uganda can navigate the challenges posed by AI and emerge as a leader in East Africa’s AI revolution.