What Is Musevenomics? Understanding Uganda’s Economic Blueprint

Musevenomics is the term being coined to describe the economic philosophy and policies that are defining Uganda’s development under President Yoweri Museveni. For anyone seeking to understand Uganda’s economic trajectory, Musevenomics is offering a lens into the strategies, successes, and challenges that are shaping the country’s journey toward middle-income status. Here’s what you need to know about this transformative yet debated approach.

The first pillar, Security of Persons and Property, is proving critical. Though the creation of a disciplined military, the Uganda People’s Defence Force, the government  restored peace, paving the way for foreign investment. This focus on stability is proving effective, as foreign direct investment is growing from virtually nothing in 1986 to 3.58% of GDP by 2019, signaling rising investor confidence.

Privatization and Market Liberalization is becoming another cornerstone. Museveni’s government is embracing neoliberal reforms, often guided by international institutions like the IMF and World Bank, to shift Uganda from a state-controlled economy to one driven by market forces. Sectors like foreign exchange and telecommunications are being opened to competition, fostering private enterprise and efficiency. Privatization, however, is sparking controversy, as it is sometimes favoring politically connected elites, leading to accusations of crony capitalism. Despite this, the policy is helping diversify Uganda’s economy, reducing reliance on coffee exports, which are falling from 90% of export receipts in the 1980s to less than 10% by 2020, as sectors like tourism, banking, and real estate are flourishing.

Universal Education and Skilling are remaining central to Musevenomics’ vision. The introduction of Universal Primary Education in 1997 and Universal Secondary Education in 2007 is dramatically expanding access to schooling, pushing literacy rates to 82% by 2020. Skilling programs are aiming to equip the workforce for a modern economy, though challenges like underfunded schools and high youth unemployment, estimated at 13-15%, are revealing gaps in execution. These initiatives are reflecting a commitment to inclusive growth, ensuring that economic progress is reaching beyond urban centers.

Addressing the Cost of Doing Business is serving as another defining feature. Musevenomics is prioritizing reducing operational costs by investing heavily in roads, railways, and energy. Electricity generation capacity is growing from 250 MW in 1986 to 1,050 MW by 2020, powering businesses and homes. Projects like the Entebbe-Kampala Expressway and upcoming oil developments, including the East African Crude Oil Pipeline set to begin production in 2025, are underscoring an ambition to modernize. Yet, high electricity tariffs and logistical bottlenecks are continuing to hinder progress, reminding us that infrastructure gains are remaining a work in progress.

A key goal of Musevenomics is Monetizing the Economy, moving it away from subsistence agriculture, which is accounting for 68% of economic activity in 1986 but only 39% by 2021. By promoting commercial agriculture and urban sectors like services and manufacturing, the government is integrating more Ugandans into the cash economy. This shift is fueling a consumerist culture, with growing middle-class aspirations, but it is also highlighting persistent rural-urban disparities.

Land Rights Reform is playing a critical role in addressing historical inequities. The 1995 Constitution is recognizing the rights of bona fide tenants, granting security to those occupying registered land. This policy is aiming to reduce disputes and encourage agricultural investment, though uneven implementation is leaving some tensions unresolved. Similarly, Inclusive Socio-Economic Policies like “Bonna Bagaggawale” (wealth for all), “Bonna Basome” (education for all), and “Bonna Babe Balamu” (health for all) are seeking to democratize access to opportunities, supported by a decentralized local governance system. These efforts are improving service delivery, but rural areas are still lagging behind.

Macroeconomic Stability is remaining a hallmark of Musevenomics, with Uganda achieving an average GDP growth rate of 8.4% annually for over two decades. Poverty rates are dropping from 56% in 1992 to 31% by 2006, though progress is slowing, with 20.3% of Ugandans still below the poverty line in 2020. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies are maintaining stability, but rising public debt, reaching 52% of GDP by 2023, is raising concerns about sustainability, especially with large infrastructure projects.

Diversification of Exports is proving pivotal in building a resilient economy. Policies are reducing coffee’s export share from 90% in the 1980s to less than 10% by 2020, with growth in sectors like tourism, banking, and real estate. Emerging exports like gold and fish, alongside upcoming oil production, are signaling further diversification.

Despite its achievements, Musevenomics is facing sharp criticism. Its neoliberal foundation is often clashing with state-driven favoritism, where government influence is benefiting a select few, undermining equitable growth. Economic gains are not fully translating into structural transformation, as agriculture and informal sectors are still dominating. Rapid population growth, at 3.3% annually, is diluting per capita GDP gains, while corruption, with Uganda ranking 141 out of 180 on the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, is eroding trust. Public discourse is reflecting this divide, with some praising Museveni’s infrastructure projects and economic stability, while others are arguing it is masking inequality and unfulfilled promises.

Looking ahead, Musevenomics is standing at a crossroads. The anticipated oil boom in 2025 could be propelling Uganda toward middle-income status, but global energy transitions and environmental concerns are posing risks. Investments in the digital economy, like the National Backbone Infrastructure, are signaling modernization, yet digital inclusion is remaining limited in rural areas. Regional integration through the East African Community and the African Continental Free Trade Area is offering new opportunities, but addressing youth unemployment and inequality is remaining critical to sustaining progress.

Musevenomics is representing a bold, pragmatic approach that is lifting Uganda from the ashes of conflict to a growing economy with regional influence. Its blend of security, liberalization, and social inclusion is delivering tangible results, but contradictions like cronyism and incomplete structural change are raising questions about its long-term impact. For those watching Uganda’s journey, Musevenomics is both a story of resilience and a reminder that economic transformation is a complex, ongoing endeavor. To dive deeper, explore reports from the World Bank or Uganda Bureau of Statistics for detailed insights.