In a significant shift within East Africa’s economic landscape, Uganda has surpassed Tanzania to become the second-richest country in the region by GDP per capita, following Kenya. This information comes from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projections for 2025. According to the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), Uganda’s GDP per capita is estimated at $1,300, narrowly exceeding Tanzania’s $1,270, while Kenya leads the region with a GDP per capita of $2,190. Rwanda, often referred to as the “Singapore of Africa” due to its aggressive development model, has a GDP per capita of approximately $990 to $1,022. This development is a significant moment for Uganda, highlighting years of economic progress and strategic investments, even as broader regional dynamics and global economic conditions influence these results.

GDP per capita, calculated by dividing a country’s total economic output (GDP) by its population, provides insight into average economic well-being. The IMF’s 2025 projections indicate:

• Kenya: $2,190 – Solidifying its status as East Africa’s economic powerhouse.
• Uganda: $1,300 – A notable advance, overtaking Tanzania by a slim margin.
• Tanzania: $1,270 – A slight decline relative to Uganda, despite having a larger overall economy.
• Rwanda: Approximately $990 to $1,022 – Experiencing steady but slower growth compared to its neighbors.

These figures contrast with 2023 data from the World Bank, where Kenya stood at $1,952.3, Tanzania at $1,224.5, and Uganda at $1,002.3. The IMF’s forward-looking estimates suggest that Uganda’s per capita income has grown significantly, driven by a projected real GDP growth rate of 6.0% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025, outpacing Tanzania’s expected 5.4% and 6.0% growth for the same period.

Uganda’s economic rise can be attributed to a combination of structural reforms, growth in various sectors, and strategic investments particularly in its emerging oil sector. Here are the key drivers:

• Oil and Gas Boom: Uganda’s oil sector is approaching commercial production, with projects like the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields poised to enhance revenues. While actual production is expected to begin around 2025-2027, preparatory investments have already spurred economic activity, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and stimulating related sectors such as construction and logistics.
• Diversified Growth: Beyond oil, Uganda has shown strong performance in mining, construction, and hospitality. The African Development Bank reported a 4.6% GDP growth in 2023, decreasing from 6.3% in 2022, but projections for 2024 and 2025 suggest a rebound driven by consumer demand and regional trade. Although agriculture still employs 70% of the workforce, higher productivity sectors like services and manufacturing are emerging.
• Population Dynamics: With a population of approximately 49 million, Uganda’s economic gains are translating more effectively into per capita terms compared to Tanzania’s larger population of 65 million. This balance allows Uganda’s GDP growth to have a more direct impact on individual income levels.

Tanzania has experienced steady but relatively slower per capita growth compared to its neighbors. In 2023, the country’s economy grew by 5.2% and is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025, according to the IMF. Key drivers of Tanzania’s economy include agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, along with public investments and business-friendly reforms under President Samia Suluhu Hassan. However, Tanzania’s larger population dilutes its per capita figures. Its total GDP ($79.06 billion in 2023) significantly exceeds that of Uganda ($48.77 billion), highlighting the distinction between overall wealth and per capita metrics.

Kenya maintains its leading position due to its diversified and industrialized economy, which encompasses sectors such as finance, technology (e.g., M-Pesa), and agriculture, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.0% to 5.5% for 2025. Meanwhile, Rwanda, despite its effective governance and urban development, faces challenges due to its smaller economic base. Its GDP per capita is increasing but still lags behind its regional counterparts due to reliance on tourism and agriculture.

Uganda’s economic ascent is not without challenges. The country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 49.6% in 2023, which is considered sustainable but indicates a need for fiscal discipline as oil revenues begin to ramp up. Additionally, poverty has increased, from 21.4% in 2017 to 30.1% in 2020, highlighting that per capita gains have not yet reached all segments of the population. Tanzania is currently facing tight financing conditions and exchange rate pressures, although its inflation remains low at 3.0%-4.0%. Kenya is grappling with debt servicing costs, while Rwanda’s high growth, projected at 7%-8%, is moderated by its smaller economic base.

Globally, the IMF forecasts a 3.2% growth rate for 2025, with Sub-Saharan Africa projected to grow at 4.0%-4.2%, suggesting that East Africa remains a bright spot. If Uganda manages its oil-driven trajectory effectively, it could solidify its position in the region. Still, Tanzania’s larger economy and Kenya’s regional dominance ensure a competitive landscape.

While the claim about which country is the “richest” hinges on GDP per capita, this perspective is somewhat narrow. Total GDP reflects a country’s economic size, in which Tanzania and Kenya outpace Uganda. Using purchasing power parity (PPP) or assessing wealth distribution might yield different rankings. Nonetheless, Uganda’s emerging status underscores its potential as a rising player in the region, reshaping narratives once dominated by Kenya and, to a lesser extent, Tanzania.

The Uganda Police Force Annual Crime Report for 2024 highlights a 4.1% decrease in overall crime compared to 2023. Reported cases dropped from 228,074 in 2023 to 218,715 in 2024. While this reduction suggests improvements in law enforcement and crime prevention efforts, a significant number of cases remain unresolved.

Out of the reported crimes, 81,750 cases were taken to court, resulting in 26,328 convictions, indicating progress in the justice system. However, 43,579 cases are still pending, highlighting the need for faster case processing. Additionally, the number of arrests stood at 88,985, demonstrating that police investigations have successfully identified and charged many suspects.

The report includes a crime rate indicator, revealing that 476 out of every 100,000 people in Uganda were victims of crime in 2024. Although crime has decreased, it remains a significant concern.

Crime Trends & Distribution

Crime is not evenly distributed across Uganda. Some areas experience higher crime rates due to population density, economic conditions, and social factors. The report identifies Kampala Metropolitan, Busoga, and Greater Masaka as crime hotspots, which reported the highest numbers of cases.

Crime rates were not consistent throughout the year, with peaks occurring in February, April, and September. These fluctuations may be attributed to seasonal factors, economic challenges, or social events that tend to trigger criminal activities.

The most commonly reported offenses in 2024 were:

• Theft (61,529 cases): This includes the theft of mobile phones, motorcycles, vehicles, and livestock. Theft remains the most widespread crime due to its financial impact and ease of execution.
• Assault (29,580 cases): Physical violence, including fights and domestic disputes, continues to be prevalent.
• Domestic violence (14,073 cases): This figure highlights ongoing issues related to gender-based violence and family conflicts.
• Sex-related offenses (14,425 cases): This category encompasses defilement, rape, and other sexual crimes, which remain a serious concern.
• Break-ins (13,511 cases): Many households and businesses fell victim to burglaries and forced entries.

The persistence of these crimes suggests that, while law enforcement is making progress, certain social and economic issues continue to drive criminal behavior.

Homicides & Violent Crimes

Homicide cases continue to pose a challenge in Uganda, with various forms of murder reported, including:

• Murder by assault: Victims die due to physical beatings.
• Murder as a result of mob justice: A disturbing trend where communities take the law into their own hands.
• Murder by strangulation: Often linked to personal revenge or domestic conflicts.
• Murder by shooting: Involving organized crime or illegal firearm possession.
• Murder resulting from domestic violence: Conflicts within families sometimes lead to tragic deaths, particularly among women and children.

The report indicates that the police are actively investigating these cases; however, community involvement is crucial in preventing such crimes.

Sexual & Child-Related Crimes

The numbers of sex-related crimes, particularly defilement (child sexual abuse) and rape, remain alarmingly high. While some cases have resulted in convictions, many others are either under investigation or pending trial.

Child-related crimes, including neglect, abandonment, and abuse, continue to be serious issues, suggesting the need for stronger child protection measures, increased public awareness, and improved legal enforcement.

Economic & Corruption Crimes

Economic crimes, such as bank fraud, land fraud, and corruption, were also highlighted in the report. These crimes undermine trust in institutions and hinder economic development. The report indicates that corporate fraud and land-related scams were among the most commonly reported offenses.

Corruption remains a major issue affecting both public and private institutions. Despite ongoing efforts to combat corruption, cases continue to surface, indicating the need for stronger anti-corruption laws and enforcement mechanisms.

Cybercrime & Media Offenses

With the increase in internet use, cybercrimes are on the rise. These include:

• Online fraud: Scammers deceive people into misleading financial transactions.
• Hacking: Unauthorized access to personal and corporate data.
• Fake news and misinformation: Manipulation of online content for political or financial gain.

Law enforcement is focusing on digital surveillance and cybersecurity measures to combat these growing threats.

Traffic and Road Safety

While crime rates have declined, road safety deteriorated in 2024. The report highlights the following findings:

• Road traffic crashes increased by 6.4%, rising from 23,608 in 2023 to 25,107 in 2024.
• Fatal crashes rose by 6.1%, resulting in 4,434 recorded deaths.
• Serious crashes, which lead to severe injuries, increased by 5.2%.

The primary causes of road accidents included reckless driving, speeding, and pedestrian negligence, with the Kampala Metropolitan area and major highways recording the highest number of fatalities. To address this issue, the government is implementing stricter traffic laws, enhancing road safety education, and increasing police patrols.

Fire and Rescue Services

The report indicates a 13.8% rise in fire incidents, totaling 1,280 fires reported in 2024. A major concern is that:

• 67% of fires occurred between 6 AM and 12 PM, primarily in homes and makeshift structures.
• Fires in schools increased by 9%, raising concerns about fire safety in educational institutions.

The police and fire departments are focused on improving response times and conducting awareness campaigns on fire prevention.

Interpol and International Crimes

Uganda’s Interpol and international relations division has addressed cross-border crimes, including:

• Drug trafficking, where illegal substances are smuggled through the country.
• Motor vehicle theft, with stolen vehicles being moved across borders.
• Extradition of wanted criminals, cooperating with international agencies to track fugitives.

Efforts are underway to enhance Uganda’s presence in global crime prevention networks.

Community Policing and Future Strategies

A significant policing reform in 2024 was the implementation of the Sub-County Policing Model, which assigns 18 police officers to each sub-county. This strategy aims to bring police services closer to communities, enhance crime prevention, and ensure quicker response times. Other key strategies for 2025 and beyond include:

• Improving police welfare by providing better housing, healthcare, and training for officers.
• Investing in technology, which involves expanding the use of CCTV surveillance, biometric identification, and digital crime databases.
• Strengthening partnerships through collaboration between police, local councils, and community leaders to prevent crime.

The Annual Crime Report for 2024 indicates a slight decrease in crime rates, but challenges persist. Law enforcement agencies are focusing on improving crime prevention strategies, expediting justice processing, and enhancing community engagement. However, pressing issues such as domestic violence, sex-related crimes, corruption, and road safety demand urgent action.

The document records the resolutions from a Ugandan multi-stakeholder dialogue convened to address public outrage over vulgar content in music produced by Gravity Omutujju and Lil Pazo. The dialogue, attended by representatives from various government agencies and cultural organizations, decried the artists’ music as inappropriate and degrading to Ugandan culture. Key resolutions included blacklisting the artists from performances and broadcasts, launching investigations potentially leading to legal prosecution under various Ugandan laws, and implementing measures to regulate media content, artist attire, and parental guidance. The overarching purpose is to curb the spread of obscene content and promote responsible artistic expression in Uganda.